Five reasons why COP26 is so important
As the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties (COP), meet in Glasgow, expectations on political leaders are high. Here are my top five reasons why the talks matter.
- Scientists have strengthened their call for rapid action
This August, 234 scientists from 66 countries published their most up to date assessment of climate change and warned that climate change is now widespread, rapid and intensify. Further, the risk of we are perilously close to exceeding temperatures to 1.5 degrees.
They confirmed that human-induced climate change is already with us, affecting weather and climate extremes in every region of the world. Some of the impacts being recorded are both unprecented and some – such as continued sea level rise - irreversible over hundreds to thousands of years.
However, strong, rapid and sustained action now could mean stabilised global temperatures in 20 to 30 years’ time - but time is running out to act.
Leading tech firms have already responded to the “code red” warning by strengthening commitments and are actively reviewing the analysis to understand the climate risk implications. Negotiators will be under unprecented pressure to ramp up mitigation efforts.
- The world faces an ambition gap
Commitments from countries to cut carbon so far would take us to 2.4 degrees warming –more ambition is needed in order to meet the Paris Agreement target of 1.5 degrees.
In a recent ERM survey, three-quarters of sustainability professionals believe that minimal progress has been made on advancing the Paris Agreement’s climate goal. This ambition gap – the gap between what science shows is needed and what nations have committed to achieve – could make or break the Paris Agreement.
New commitments under the Paris Agreement should have been filed earlier this year. More stringent targets from the US, UK and Europe among others have since the emissions gap close by 15% this year. But momentum has slowed since May. Brazil, Australia and Russia have failed to commit to deeper cuts. A further 46 countries, including China and India, have yet to update their targets.
Negotiators will want to see that gap close further by the end of the two-week talks. Failure to do so risks locking us into dangerous levels of climate change.
In parallel, UK presidency is seeking to galvanise specific commitments on energy; low-carbon transport; climate adaptation, loss and damage; nature; and, green finance – all areas where tech is proving to have a significant enabling role to play, evident in the digital tech presence that can be seen in the official events and those in the fringe during the two week negotiations see the five day Tech for our Planet, organised by the UK’s environment department, and the Space & Geospatial virtual pavilion for COP26.
- Mobilizing business and other non-state actors
While the negotiations are government-to-government, the UK presidency has been using the momentum of COP to encourage cities, states, regions, investors and businesses to commit to net zero. Enhancing the role of non-state actors should mean that the negotiations deliver more than the sum of its parts.
The Race to Zero campaign has been the main focus of efforts, which has become the largest ever alliance committed to achieving net zero by 2050 by the latest. Collectively, signatories now cover 25% of global CO2 emissions and over 50% of GDP.
The UNFCCC secretariat and UK presidency will want to maintain momentum throughout the negotiations. As of September, 40% of the global tech sector by revenue had committed to the Race to Zero, up from 6% at the start of the year.
- Formal international carbon markets can help us move faster, cheaper
While negotiators have agreed most of the rules around implementing the Paris Agreement, one key element has remained stubbornly out of reach – technical discussions around Article 6. Article 6 of the Agreement deals with international carbon markets and has proved to be a thorn in negotiators’ side.
Years of negotiation failed to see agreement on the rules. Article 6 offers a path to massively increasing climate ambition and lowering costs. The International Emissions Trading Association estimates that if struck right, it could shave $250 billion a year off global transition costs. But to its critics it risks undermining the ambition of the Paris Agreements by allowing businesses and nations to buy their way out of taking action on their own emissions.
Given the economic prize, negotiators will be keen to resolve the disagreements here, and finalising the rulebook would be a key measure of success for COP26. For the tech sector, which is banking on voluntary carbon markets in the near term to reach their climate goals, an international market could enable companies to access a wider pool of opportunities to support emission reductions.
- Developed countries need to keep their promises
In 2009, during the Copenhagen COP, wealthy nations pledged to mobilise $100 billion in climate finance by 2020 to help vulnerable nations deal with climate change. However, a delivery plan published last year has concluded that this won’t be met until 2023.
While figures for 2021 are not yet available, media reports suggest that rich countries have raised $88-90bn. The UK government has recently published a delivery plan “to provide clarity” while admitting that the target has been missed.
Expect more debate around climate finance. Negotiators from developing countries will be looking for the finance to be scaled to secure a new finance target.
Often framed as an issue of justice, the failure to meet the 2020 target could undermine trust between nations as they head into negotiations in Glasgow.
But regardless of whatever happens, or doesn’t happen, at COP26, the relentless march towards the net zero transition will continue. There is no sign that the pressure on tech firms and their investors to produce credible and robust climate strategies will be abated anytime soon.