New IPCC Climate Change Report: Questions for tech.

Released at the end of February, the IPCC’s sixth risk assessment (AR6) outlined the risks posed to the world from anthropogenic climate change. Like past assessments, this new report makes for grim reading and drives home the seriousness of unmitigated climate change. The impacts outlined are not evenly distributed, with the most serious adverse weather events facing those countries who have historically contributed the least to the emission of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

Observed impacts

The primary observed impacts of climate change are numerous but of key interest to those operating in the tech sector are as follows:

• Increased in the frequency and intensity of climate and weather extremes, including heat extremes on land, heavy precipitation events, drought, and wildfires. This may be a cause for concern for those operating physical infrastructure.
• Increased heat related mortality has obvious implications for all of society above and beyond the concerns of any sector.
• Numerous medium - high/very high confidence adverse impacts on cities, settlements, and infrastructure across the world. Moderate severity in Europe. Highest in North America and Small Islands.

Secondary observed impacts include:

• Disruption to the functioning of key infrastructure and energy systems.
• Intensification of unsustainable use of natural resources and increased competition for said resources.

Cyber-Physical and Enterprise Resilience

It is the secondary impacts which have so far caused large concern for the tech sector. The resilience of office spaces, shops, physical digital infrastructure (including telecoms and data centres) and transport infrastructure is under question. Staff may be impacted by climate risks preventing them from carrying out their roles; a consideration which must be included in risk assessments. While remote working is allowing people to work around disruptions to, say, public transport cancellations due to bad weather, damage to the energy or telecoms infrastructure would make this impossible.

The resilience of CNI (critical national infrastructure) is the subject of more than one government consultation, while sectors are already being asked to report on their climate preparedness to government. Tech companies should reconsider their resilience measures considering this report regardless of their position regarding legislation. This would provide additional resilience which may be necessary if projections are inaccurate. It is worth noting that inaccuracies are likely to be in the form of underestimating impacts rather than overestimating them.

Supply Chains

Climatic pressure on global supply chains is another facet of the observed impacts outlined in AR6. The safe exploitation of primary resources, such as metals and minerals required for consumer tech may already be under threat. The global nature of supply chains means that vulnerabilities in global freight must be considered as part of a supply chain risk assessment, for companies who wish to have a wholistic view of their risk exposure. The increase in the frequency and intensity of stochastic weather events, including tropical storms and heavy precipitation may cause delays or losses of resource or product.

Complex, Compound and Cascading Risks

CCC risks refer to concurrent and repeated climatic hazards which are likely to occur in all regions. Risks tend to interact, generating new sources of climatic vulnerability, compounding overall risk. For example, a scenario involving high rainfall in conjunction with a tidal surge, underset by sea level rise may result in catastrophic flooding above what is considered in traditional risk assessments. It is for this reason that robust adaptation and resilience policies must be implemented by all companies. Established risks associated with infrastructure projects may be redundant under a compound risk scenario, something that we urge practitioners to consider in their planned and ongoing works.

Overshoot

Overshoot refers to a scenario where 1.5C warming is surpassed in the coming decades with a return to desirable ranges, or permanently in a runaway climate change scenario. Overshoot would result in additional severe risks, above what is included in the observed risks outlined above. As well as the devastating consequences on the natural world and its systems which we rely on, this would also mean many sectors of the existing economy would be heavily impacted or no longer viable. It is unclear if tech would be immune to this, being largely service oriented in the UK at least, or if the disruption to overseas partners would see tech’s build in resilience undermined.

Adaptation Assessment

Adaptation is praised for is power in reducing climate risks and vulnerability. Adaptation also can generate additional benefits, including biodiversity promotion, social equality, and innovation, among other things.

Future adaptation is encouraged through several transitional mechanisms. Consideration of the land, ocean and ecosystem management structures is advised. Urban, rural and infrastructure transition is also advised, with inclusive, long-term planning posited as a sustainable and adaptable solution to existential threats. Energy system transition, perhaps most important for the move away from carbon emitting fuel sources, is also advised with hydropower and thermo-electric power generation suggested as suitable and deployable replacements.

Maladaptation is also discussed, with experts advising against short-term, reactive planning approaches. Poorly thought through adaptive measures may risk locking in an unsustainable solution, risking larger losses further in the future. An example used is rigid hard flood defence measures, undesirable when compared with adaptive soft flood mitigation measures. Multi-sectoral, multi-actor, inclusive planning is recommended to avoid maladaptive climate responses.

The tech sector, in its commitment to net-zero action, digitalisations’ ability to curb the emissions in other sectors and its clean tech movement is exemplifying the best that adaptation has to offer at present, but more can be done.

techUK Climate Campaign

techUK believes that tech can go further in the fight against climate change. However dire the AR6’s announcements are, we believe that the most desirable avenue to meet the challenge is through innovation, private sector leadership, open dialogue and insight sharing.

It is for this reason that techUK is launching a climate campaign this month, focussing on the positive lessons that business in the sustainable tech space can teach us, culminating in our flagship sustainability event in June. More information to follow.

For more information on the campaign or any of the issues discussed in this article, please contact [email protected] or [email protected].

techUK - Committed to Climate Action

techUK is part of the global Race to Zero climate campaign. The tech sector has a crucial role in driving climate action. Every tech organisation, large and small, has a responsibility to lead by example and commit to climate action. To discuss how we can support you on your decarbonisation journey, please visit our Climate Action Hub and click ‘Contact us’.